As of 28 January 2021, more than 100 million cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed globally.European countries are experiencing the second and third waves of the disease.The United States, the worst affected country in the world, has taken steps to combat the epidemic since new President Joe Biden took office, but its hopes have been largely pinned on vaccines.
Based on current vaccination progress, effective mass vaccination in key populations in developed countries is likely to last until around the second quarter of 2021.Emerging markets will be later.
It can be said that the global economy in 2021 will still be in a state of "epidemic" operation.There is still a long way to go from the expected "inflection point".There is a high probability that the epidemic will become normal in 2021.
As a result of the Covid-19 outbreak, major economies adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to rescue their economies, resulting in a sustained surge in international trade.Benefited from this, it is expected that the demand of the international consolidated transportation market in 2021 will still exceed the expected possibility, and the world's major economies may usher in the situation of synchronous resonance.
The outlook for global trade growth is significantly better than before as global merchandise trade continues to rebound from the second half of 2020.The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast is that the world economy will see a post-recession recovery in 2021, with growth picking up to 5.2%.The World Trade Organisation reckons global trade in goods will grow by 7.2 per cent in 2021.
Consolidation demand: up to 10% increase
In the first quarter of 2020, the outbreak of the epidemic caused the disruption of China's supply side, and global trade and container volume simultaneously fell off a double-digit cliff
In the second quarter, China took the lead in resuming work and production, and the total demand for global consolidation transportation declined. However, China's export share continued to rise, and the substitution effect appeared, which promoted a double rebound in the demand for consolidation transportation.China's share of EU imports increased to 28.1%.Its share of US imports rose to 18.3%;Its share of Japan's imports rose to 30.1%.Since June 2020, consumption in European and American countries has rec